New York, Lower Manhattan.A brand new black Rolls-Royce Phantom was driving on Old Broadway, and it seemed to exude a freshly baked aroma like bread.It attracted the attention of passers-by.This is the richest area in New York and even in the world.If you want to buy a Rolls-Royce Phantom, you need not only money but also enough fame.The car was bought by Liu Jingyan for Li Jiankun. As the beautiful president of the largest casino hotel in Las Vegas, she is famous enough.Today is my first street show. I just picked Li Jiankun up from the New York airport.The Phantom approaches the famous Trinity Church.Directly in front of the church is the New York Stock Exchange, behind it is the United States Stock Exchange, on both sides are towering office buildings, and in a small area around it, there are still 17th-century gardens and cemeteries preserved.Cross Broadway from the church door and you will officially enter the famous Wall Street.Many people may not know that Wall Street is geographically just a small street in the southern part of Manhattan, New York, extending from Broadway to the East River.It is only a third of a mile long and only eleven meters wide.The second side is filled with old buildings from the American Gilded Age.It's really not that high-end.It seems that it is completely unmatched by its "residents"——The Rothschild Group, Morgan Group, Rockefeller Group, Goldman Sachs Group and DuPont Group, etc., have companies mainly engaged in financial business.There are also the Nasdaq headquarters, the American Stock Exchange headquarters, the New York Mercantile Exchange headquarters, etc.In fact, the word "Wall Street" has long gone beyond the street itself and has become a synonym for the surrounding area.The seven blocks from Broadway to the East River can be called Wall Street, also known as the "Financial Center of the United States."The investment company set up by Liu Jingyan was settled in Wall Street.Number forty.When Li Jiankun got off the Phantom, he looked up at the 70-story skyscraper and felt that it looked very familiar.Under the guidance of Liu Jingyan, when they were about to reach the floor where the investment company was located by elevator, Li Jiankun patted his thigh lightly and remembered something.Later, a guy whose motto was "No one knows better than me" bought this place.When the media broadcast news about him, the building with the same name as him is often seen in the background.Ding Dong!The elevator door opens.A black and gold style cultural wall comes into view.On it is inlaid a row of gold-plated characters in English:【Jinding International Investment Company】.Very exaggerated.A bit dark too.However, Li Jiankun was very satisfied as it was the style he wanted.He has his own principles for dealing with people, which are very common and can be roughly described as follows:When dealing with people who have good hearts, we should pretend to be gentlemen. Otherwise, let's see who is more evil.The huge space was silent.The capital pool that this company will manage in the future will be very large, and Li Jiankun has no intention of sharing a floor with others.Wouldn't it be a loss of status if it gets out?Li Jiankun looked at Liu Jingyan and said, "You only work on the hardware, at least you need some staff. We also need people to do the sanitation."Liu Jingyan smiled and said, "Yes, there are, but the space is too big, and with more than ten logistics personnel, it seems that we can't see it."After saying that, he led Li Jiankun and Fugui brothers to continue forward.After a while, we arrived at an open office with all the necessary office supplies, and finally saw someone.The logistics staff, dressed in uniform, included both men and women, mostly white women, but there were also black and Chinese.After seeing Liu Jingyan, everyone subconsciously bowed slightly.Liu Jingyan raised her hand and introduced the person beside her: "This is the boss of the company."Everyone was obviously surprised at Li Jiankun's youth and shouted "BOSS" in unison.At this time, a door outside the office was pushed open.A group of people heard the noise and ran out.The man and woman in the lead were none other than the young hero couple who were called over by Li Jiankun.The others were classmates or friends they recruited.They are all young talents in the financial field."Xiaohui, Zhiqiang, David... this is the great man I mentioned to you."Wu Yingxiong laughed, walked up to Li Jiankun and gave him a bear hug.Feng Xiaowan followed and called out "Brother Kun" sweetly."No hurry, no hurry. You two can meet again later. Let me get to know the veterans of our company first."Li Jiankun shook hands and greeted the people behind the two men one by one.There were two white people among them, and the others were all Chinese. When Li Jiankun extended his hand, they all shook it with both hands, not daring to put on airs as high-end financial talents.It wasn't like that at first.When Wu Yingxiong and Feng Xiaowan contacted them.Although the relationship was good, no one was willing to join a new company.Their attitude changed only after Wu Yingxiong and Feng Xiaowan brought them here, saw the wealth of this new company, met Liu Jingyan, the beautiful president who managed assets worth billions of dollars, and learned that the boss behind the company was rich enough to rival a country.Wait until Li Jiankun's hand separates from the last person.Wu Yingxiong couldn't wait to come over and pulled him by the arm into an office.During the past half month in the United States, he has been studying U.S. stocks and has made some discoveries, but more of them are still confusions.Feng Xiaowan followed.Others looked at their backs and whispered.He was really too young, perhaps not even as old as them. When the young hero and his wife talked about it, they were a little skeptical.click!The door is closed.There were only Li Jiankun and Xiao Yingxiong in the room."Brother Kun, do you really think there will be a financial crisis?"Wu Yingxiong said seriously: "I have been researching for a while. I don't deny your judgment that the US stock market may face fluctuations, but I am not sure the magnitude of the fluctuations will be large."Feng Xiaowan added: "What he meant was: If you do this and specially set up such a big company, I'm afraid the scale will be even bigger than when you were in Japan two years ago.“We have carefully studied and discussed with those outside the door, and we can’t see any major changes in the US stock market."In this case, if you invest a large amount of money in short selling, you may lose money."Li Jiankun understood that they cared about him.This work really needs to be done.If both of them hold opposing opinions and cannot agree with me, it will inevitably affect the subsequent operations.Li Jiankun moved a mesh office chair and sat down, then raised his hand, motioning for them to sit down as well.This will take some time to discuss.It is quite difficult to get two top professionals to deny their own judgment and believe him.Fortunately, he is a hacker, and fortunately, he studied economics in this life..."Under what circumstances do you think a financial crisis might break out?" Li Jiankun asked.Feng Xiaowan was the first to respond, "The most important factor is definitely the economic downturn. In addition, based on history, before a financial crisis, the stock market is bound to experience some abnormal fluctuations, such as a continuous decline."She paused here, stared at Li Jiankun and said:“After entering the 1980s, the U.S. stock market is still in a bull market, influenced by policies such as low interest rates and monetary easing."I was looking at a piece of data before: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose from 1224.37 points at the end of August 2662.95 to 117.5 points at the end of August this year, an increase of %."Yes, according to her.The market is booming.It doesn't look like there is any financial crisis.She certainly agreed with the hero's principle that "everything that rises must fall", but she really couldn't see any signs of decline at the moment.So what she said before was still conservative.The main reason was that she was greatly shocked by Brother Kun’s godly operation on the Japanese stock market.Li Jiankun asked again: "Do you know what the average annual growth rate of the U.S. economy has been from 1984 to this year?""This……""About 4 percent." Wu Yingxiong answered for his wife.Li Jiankun smiled and nodded, then looked at Feng Xiaowan and said, "We have a saying that goes 'dating without the purpose of getting married is hooliganism', I will apply it and make a whole sentence -"Financial analysis that does not take into account the real economy is just castles in the air."Since they were so familiar with each other, Li Jiankun was not afraid of her getting angry.Feng Xiaowan blushed and was unable to refute.Li Jiankun went on to say: "This shows that the growth rate of the US stock market is far higher than the growth rate of the real economy. What is this called? A bubble."Wu Yingxiong pondered and asked: "But how do you judge that this bubble will burst in the near future?"Besides, the bubble is not that big at the moment, and even if it bursts, it should not be enough to trigger a financial crisis."Ding!Li Jiankun threw away the metal and made a phone call, then lit up a cigarette, of which there were only a few packs left in his suitcase.He slowly exhaled a puff of white mist and said, "This brings us back to my previous question.“Xiao Wan’s answer is certainly correct, but it’s not comprehensive enough.“The financial crisis was the result of a combination of factors."In my opinion, before a financial crisis breaks out, theoretically, there are ten signs that cannot be avoided."Feng Xiaowan looked around, stood up, grabbed a pen and paper from a desk, and thought about making a note.Top ten signs?Is it so accurate?Financial crises are so treacherous and complex, is it really possible to predict them using any systematic criteria?Wu Yingxiong smiled at her, his eyes full of love, and he was just about to make a cheat sheet.Li Jiankun said while puffing on a cigarette:"1. The stock market plummeted. This is self-evident and needs no explanation. Xiaowan, you just said that the US stock market is doing very well. That's because the financial storm has not yet hit. This usually happens on the eve of a financial crisis.“2. Capital flight on a large scale. This will lead to a continuous decline in foreign exchange reserves, which will be difficult to deal with and the only option is to raise interest rates in desperation, which will bring a greater impact on the country's real economy."3. Bank credit crisis. There is a severe shortage of money, bank runs, and the normal bank credit relationship is destroyed. At the same time, a large number of financial institutions go bankrupt and close down.“4. Corporate debt defaults have increased significantly. Corporate debt defaults may trigger a domino effect.“5. Asset price bubbles are serious. There are big bubbles in the stock market, housing prices, and exchange rates. The whole nation is leveraging, and the leverage ratios of enterprises and residents remain high.“6. Official reserves have been drastically reduced. There has been a sharp depreciation of the currency and inflation."7. The overall economy is in serious decline. People have invested their money in the virtual economy, which has led to a decline in profits and earnings of cyclical companies, and even widespread losses.“8. The debt-to-asset ratio of enterprises or residents is high."9. Corporate profits or resident incomes have dropped significantly."Li Jiankun paused here.Rustle, rustle, rustle...rustle.Feng Xiaowan stopped writing and raised her head, her eyes filled with shock and doubt.Wu Yingxiong's eyes were wide open, and there was a gleam of light behind his black-framed glasses.Nothing that Brother Kun said is profound, and you can understand it as soon as you hear it.However, no one has ever summarized them and used them to predict financial crises."What's another sign?" Wu Yingxiong asked."Forget it, let's just take these nine." Li Jiankun waved his hand."???"Wu Yingxiong and Feng Xiaowan looked at each other. They had already told all nine of them, so why were they still hiding it?What? If you tell others the last sign, you will be punished by God.He wouldn't be punished by heaven, but if Li Jiankun told the tenth sign, in ten years, with the little hero's intelligence, he might rush to his door and ask him if he was a time traveler.In another twenty years, the little hero will point his finger at him and say with great certainty: "You are the one who traveled through time!"Because the tenth sign is called: the cycle with "8".The financial crisis of 1987 was the first stock market crash in the modern sense.Subsequently.The Asian financial crisis of 1997 spread to Eastern Europe from October of that year to August 1998.The US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.In 2, the PP online lending industry collapsed and the prices of cryptocurrencies, led by Bitcoin, plummeted.Facing the two people's resentful eyes, Li Jiankun smiled awkwardly and quickly said:“If any three of the above nine signs are present, a financial crisis may break out.“Look for yourselves at the current situation in the United States."Of course, it's purely a personal opinion."Wu Yingxiong closed his eyes and started analyzing in his mind.Feng Xiaowan held the cheat sheet in her hand, staring at it in a daze, as if she had found a divine book.Can the financial crisis really be predicted?After all, Brother Kun made a correct prediction, although it was in the opposite direction.If Brother Kun is right again this time.This piece of paper...will be priceless!